A new playing field

O propósito deste estudo é analisar o possível impacto que um viés emocional possa ter nos julgamentos dos eleitores. Nesse sentido utilizamos o futebol como fonte exógena de um choque. O nosso modelo de efeitos fixos nos leva a concluir que vitórias de equipes no final de semana da eleição estão associadas a maior votação no incumbente indicando que um viés emocional pode influenciar o eleitor.

This paper purpose is to study the possible impact that emotional biases might have on
voters’ judgements when we use a retrospective voting framework. In order to do so we use soccer as the instrument that may influence mood and emotions. Our fixed effect models show that wins on the election weekend are associated with a increase in incumbent voting, indicating that emotional biases (and soccer) may, in fact, influence voters.

Keywords: Retrospective Voting, Soccer, Emotional Bias.

1 INTRODUCTION

2 LITERATURE
2.1 Retrospective Voting
2.2 Mood and Judgment
2.3 Sports and Mood

3 DATA
3.1 TSE voting by zone and municipality
3.2 Teams’ Fan bases
3.3 Matches

4 EMPIRICAL STRATEGY

5 RESULTS

6 CONCLUSIONS

7 REFERENCES

8 TABLES